Model Holds Firm: 9.8% and 6.6% Growth for 2011 and 2012 Respectively Apple Results Recalibrate Hardware
60% of the model is in and 64% of companies met or beat the estimates – slightly lower than in prior quarters.Apple’s iPhone and iPad results brought the model’s hardware figure closer to reality (from +10.7% to +9.7%) and took the 2012 estimate down to +6.7%.Software ticked up +0.4% pts. to +10.7%for 2011 with Services staying steady at +9.4%.
Currency tailwind should have helped IBM and the Software vendors more than it did, which gives us pause.Microsoft and EMC were OK.Apple overall and SAP had good results.
HP, Dell, Cisco, Lenovo, and CSC are the remaining heavyweights for Hardware and Services.Software – except for Solutions – is pretty much done.Hardware moves pretty independently from Software and Service, so the HP results, etc. will call the tune when they show up.
Overall, we think we’re well within +/- 1% of the finals for 2011.The 2012 forecast is now:
* Hardware: +6.7%
* Software: +8.0%
* Services: +5.9%
* All 2012 Spend: +6.6%
We'll be recalibrating the product line detail for 2011 and 2012 at the end of November.
Here’s what we thought would happen this week – and the actuals.
What Happened
Company
Expected YoY Growth Rate
Actual YoY Growth Rate
10/17 Note
10/27 Note
Apple
Mac
Peripherals
iPhones
SW & Other
iPads
+10%
+16%
+94%
+14%
A lot
+29%
+34%
+24%
+10%
A lot
Apple is its own market segment
16% last time, slowing to 10%
39% last time, 16% this time
150% last time, only 94% this time
8% last time, 14% this time
Way a lot…
Great results
Great results
Whoops!
A little light
Not as much as we thought
EMC
+14%
+15%
18% last time, 14% this time - excludingVMWare
Pretty right on
IBM
Software
Service
Hardware
+15%
+15%
+8%
+13%
+15%
+4%
Accenture & Currency Services news is good, expect a beat here
+17% last time, 15% this time
+10% last time, 8% this time
+18% last time, 8% this time
A little light
Right on
Came up short
Microsoft SW
Client
Server
MBDS
-1%
+8%
+8%
+2%
+7%
+10%
+4% last time, -1% this time
16% last time, 8% this time
10% last time, 8% this time
A little better
Right on
A little strong
VMWare
+44%
+32%
37% last time.44% this time?I’m not so sure…
Still bullish
October 17, 2011 WW IT Spending Update
Apple, IBM, EMC, VMWare, and Microsoft up this Week
The Model is Currently at 10.2% and 7.9% Growth for 2011 and 2012 Respectively
The September early reports were OK.Since then, SAP’s preliminary report was very strong, but Infosys was a shade light.Accenture’s results are a good harbinger for IBM. Earnings have been strong and guidance encouraging. Wall Street loves Tech right now through the 4th Quarter – but that may change in the next 15 minutes.The currency tailwind should be sweeping the software and services folks smartly across the finish line, but we’ll see.Here’s what we’re expecting, but I think the risk is to the upside.
Here’s What We Think
Company
Expected YoY Revenue
10/17 Note
Apple Mac Peripherals iPhones SW & Other iPads
$5.356B $0.554B $17.116B $0.755B A lot
Apple is its own market segment 16% last time, slowing to 10% 39% last time, 16% this time 150% last time, only 94% this time 8% last time, 14% this time Way a lot…
EMC
$4.003B
18% last time, 14% this time - excludingVMWare
IBM Software Service Hardware
$5.909B $15.152B $4.665B
Accenture & Currency Services news is good, so expect a beat here +17% last time, 15% this time +10% last time, 8% this time +18% last time, 8% this time
Microsoft SW Client Server MBDS
$4.740B $4.268B $5.559B
+4% last time, -1% this time 16% last time, 8% this time 10% last time, 8% this time
VMWare
$1.031B
37% last time.44% this time?I’m not so sure…
September 22, 2011 WW IT Spending Update
RIM, Oracle, and Adobe Revenue Stumbles
Q32011 WW SW Spending Growth Sags -0.5%
Will the Mo Continue?Don’t Think So.
RIM, Oracle, and Adobe were the first up for the quarter and the results were not good.Even with a nice currency tailwind the Oracle and Adobe results were weaker than expected, pointing to a -0.5% decline in the Q32011 YoY Software growth rate to +8.5%.Accenture is a very strong indicator of Services (and thusly overall IT) growth so the results there will drive the current 10.8% YoY estimate for Q3 Services growth.
Currency was a big positive factor last quarter and will be the case for the remaining June-August quarter reporters below in Q3.The US$ Index is cycling back towards more normal rates this month, so the impact of currency on vendors reporting the July-Sept quarter will still benefit, but not as much.We expect the currency boost for YoY comparisons to dissipate entirely in Q4.
However, the Q4 guidance from Adobe was very aggressive (albeit, Omniture is the driver there) and RIM’s Q4 guidance was decidedly upbeat.The current Oracle model (which has the currency tailwind) is for 10% growth YoY in Q4, +3%pts above Oracle’s forecast midpoint (7%).If they hit their midpoint in Q4, then our 2011 Software growth estimate of +10.3% will be closer to +9%.
Red is hot, Blue is not!
Company
Quarterly Growth Rate Predicted
Quarterly Growth Rate Actual
9/15 Note
9/22 Note
Accenture
+21%
Was up +21% in Q22011.Expected +8% currency help this quarter.We’re thinking Accenture should beat their guidance midpoint as they have done the last 4 quarters.
Adobe
+4%
+2%
Guidance midpoint is very modest vs. last Qs +8% performance.Should do better with better currency winds.
Well, they missed that modest guidance midpoint, although Q4 is supposed to make up for it
Oracle Total Software Service Apps DB Hardware & HW Service
+13% +18% +8% +17% +20% -25%
+12% +17% +10% +17% +16% -28%
Closed out 2011FY kind of light across the board, especially Services. HW was dead on last time – but it translates to -27% YoY.Currency is advantageous, so we’ll be disappointed if they disappoint.
We’re disappointed.Apps was a good story, Database is worrisome for the industry as a whole.
Progress
+5%
Did +6% last Q.
Paychex
+1%
Vs. 6% last time.
Red Hat
+26%
+28%
+27% last time
Beat the model 6 Qs in a row
RIM
-3%
-10%
Guidance midpoint, but expect something better.Was +16% last quarter, about ½ of expectation.
Was +24% last Q.Have beat the estimate 9xs in a row
September 15, 2011 WW IT Spending Update
Accenture, RIM, and Oracle up to Bat
The WW IT Spending Model Stands at +10.1% for 2011 and +7.6% for 2012
Will the Mo Continue?
The vendors below are the first up to bat after the summer meltdown.We’ll especially be focused on the results of Accenture and Oracle as predictors of Services, Software, and overall IT spending.
Currency was a big positive factor last quarter and will be the case again for the June-August quarter reporters above.The US$ Index is cycling back towards more normal rates this month, so the impact of currency on vendors reporting the July-Sept quarter next month won’t benefit as much.If the vendors below miss these numbers, then we’re in for a tougher Q3 overall than we originally forecasted.
Company
Quarterly Revenue Predicted
Quarterly Growth Rate Predicted
Note
Accenture
$6.565B
+21%
Was up +21% in Q22011.Expected +8% currency help this quarter.We’re thinking Accenture should beat their guidance midpoint as they have done the last 4 quarters.
Adobe
$1.025B
+4%
Guidance midpoint is very modest vs. last Qs +8% performance.Should do better with better currency tailwinds.
Oracle Total Software Service Apps DB Hardware & HW Service
$8.455B $5.598B $1.150B $1.738 $3.897B $1.708B
+13% +18% +8% +17% +20%
Closed out 2011FY kind of light across the board, especially Services. HW was dead on last time – but it translates to -27% YoY.Currency is advantageous, so we’ll be disappointed if they disappoint.
Progress
$136M
+5%
Did +6% last Q.
Paychex
$524M
+1%
Vs. 6% last time.
Red Hat
$278M
+26%
+27% last time
RIM
$4.5B
-3%
Guidance midpoint, but expect something better.Was +16% last quarter, about ½ of expectation.
Tibco
$220M
+20%
Was +24% last Q
August 22, 2011 WW IT Spending Forecast Update
HP and Dell Results Stay the Course for +10.1% in 2011
Last week we had the following predictions.Wall St doesn’t like the earnings picture, but the revenue story, especially with favorable currency, is holding firm.Here's how our predictions fared and what the model is seeing...
Predicted Q211 Revenue
Predicted YoY Growth
Actual Yoy Growth
Notes
HP Total
31313
-0.4%
Disappointing overall, but not terrible
ESS
5404
8%
7%
OK
Services
8792
0%
4%
Good news – but currency has been a big factor here
IPG
6377
3%
-1%
Big downside surprise
PSG
9808
-1%
-3%
Worse than we expected, worse than Dell
Software
757
16%
20%
OK
Dell Total
15397
-1%
+1%
OK
Desktops
3484
-10%
-3%
Better than we thought, but still a drag
Mobility
4788
2%
+1%
OK
Servers and NW
2001
6%
+9%
Better than we thought
Storage
511
-18%
-20%
OK
Services
2008
5%
+6%
OK
SW & Peripherals
2605
3%
+1%
Worse than we expected
2011 and 2012
Overall 2011 WW IT Spending – +10.1% (up from 9.7%)
HW – +10.7% (up from 10.2%)
Software – +10.3% (up from 9.7%)
Services – +9.4% (up from 8.7%)
2012 is looking like +7.6% over 2011.
2011 & 2012 Segment Outlook In May, we had out first view of what the Product/Service Offerings forecast for 2011 would look like.Here’s the update:
2010 Growth
May 2011 Est. 2011 Growth
Aug 2011 Est. 2011 Growth
Aug 2011 Est. 2012 Growth
Notes
Handhelds
61.5%
100%
74.6%
35%
Kind of coming back to earth
PCs
15.6%
6.3%
5.3%
6.2%
OK
Servers
13.6%
6.0%
6.2%
1.9%
??
Storage
20.8%
6.4%
11.6%
6.3%
Nice ride in 2011
Peripherals
8.7%
3.0%
0.7%
1.7%
Trending lower
Networking HW
21.7%
6.0%
4.7%
3.6%
Trending lower
System & Mgt. Software
17.8%
6.2%
8.4%
7.8%
Pretty robust
Database/MW SW
17.4%
13.3%
16.0%
10.3%
Looking strong
Office & Content SW
15.1%
8.1%
8.8%
7.9%
Steady
Cross Industry SW
8.6%
15.8%
15.7%
7.4%
Coming back to the mean
Engineering SW
9.7%
11.2%
9.7%
7.7%
Industrial build-out leveling off
Industry-Specific SW
10.4%
12.8%
12.1%
6.3%
Coming back to the mean
Services
3.4%
7.6%
9.4%
5.9%
Nice currency-aided 2011
Q2 2011 Profits Look Good
Q22011 profits were up 14% for the IT Industry YoY.Consumer HW gained +7% pts of industry profit share since Q22010.IT Services, Comm Equipment, MPUs, and Printers were on a downwards trend compared to last year.SW, Infrastructure HW, Business Services, and Internet Services held their own.
August 15, 2011 WW IT Spending Forecast Update
HP (predicting $31.313 Total) and Dell (predicting $15.397) to Round out the Quarter
Here's what the model is seeing...
Cap Q211 Revenue
YoY Growth
HP Total
31313
ESS
5404
8%
Services
8792
0%
IPG
6377
3%
PSG
9808
-1%
Software
757
16%
Dell Total
15397
-1%
PC
3484
-10%
Mobility
4788
2%
Servers and NW
2001
6%
Storage
511
-18%
Services
2008
5%
SW & Peripherals
2605
3%
August 5, 2011 WW IT Spending Update
Wall Street Throws Up – W(h)ither IT?
2011 WW IT Growth Model Inches Up to +9.7%
+3.5% pt. Currency Help in the 1H
69% of reporting business units (96 reporting) met or beat their revenue guidance midpoint or the Model’s estimate – on a par with the results of the last 5 Quarters.
The most consequential remaining reports are Cisco (expect $11.237B this week), HP, CSC, and Dell.We’ll check in with the results of the final 50 reports in mid-August.But I think we’ve reached the apogee for 2011.
Currency
A weakening dollar has been a decade (at least) long trend – with currency accounting for an average of +1%pt annually of WW IT industry growth from 2006 – 2010.So far in 2011, however, currency has had a larger impact on the forecast.1H2011 $USIndex was ~77 vs 1H2010’s 87.This netted to a 3.5% boost in $US-denominated growth.If the Index stays where it is now (early August 2011) for the rest of 2011, ~4%pts of 2011 IT spending growth will be a function of currency.
Operating Margin
IT Vendors are growing margins.88% of 40 large companies we track met or beat their Q22010 operating income. The median for yoy Operating Income growth is ~+18%.
2011 and 2012 Overall 2011 WW IT Spending – +9.7% (up from 9.4%)
HW – +10.7% (up from 10.2%)
Software – +9.7% (up from 9.7%)
Services – +8.7% (up from 8.1%)
2012 is looking like +6.9% over 2011.We’ll have a view of 2011 & 2012 by product category next time.
July 25, 2011 WW IT Spending Update
2011 WW IT Growth Model Estimate is up 1% pt. to 9.4%
How Good Can iPhones and iPads Growth Be??Pretty Good!
With nearly 50% of the model now in, we’re seeing a mixed picture.iPads did so great (making up for the shortfalls in other Apple businesses) that the overall model leapt 1% pt. IBM had a great quarter (albeit currency-driven).Microsoft had a good quarter as well.
But the general picture from others was more mediocre with only 58% of the vendors and reporting business units meeting or beating the revenue estimate – somewhat lower than the >67% we’ve seen over the past few quarters.
The most consequential remaining reports are HP and Dell.We’ll check in with the results of the next 50 reports prior to that in early August.But I think we’ve reached the apogee for 2011.
Here’s What Happened
Company
Expected Growth Rate
Actual Growth Rate
7/5 Note
7/21 Note
Apple Mac Peripherals iPhones SW & Other iPads
+20% +39% Off the board +14%
+16% +31% +250% +8%
32% last time 23% last time 125% last time 15% last time Model has iPads at $3.4B.Look for ~$1B more.
A little disappointing A little disappointing Pretty hot! A little disappointing How about $2.6B more!
EMC
+13%
+17%
16% last time, excludingVMWare
In line, 3.4% pts of currency help
IBM Software Service Hardware
+11% +9% +19%
+17% +10% +18%
Can’t be this good, but… +6% last time +6% last time +19% last time
It could be this good, but currency helped a lot OK, even without currency Lots of help here Continued strength
Microsoft SW Client Server MBDS
+3% +11% +8%
+4% +16% +10%
The model looks a little low... 1% last time 15% last time 24% last time
Yes it was…
VMWare
+29%
+37%
33% last time.The locomotive keeps churning.
Whoa!
2011 Outlook
Apple, Microsoft, and IBM results were good.But the other vendors are showing mediocre result vs. the estimates, so we may have reached a steady state for the remainder of the year.
Overall WW IT Spending – +9.4% (up from 8.9%)
HW – +10.7% (up from 10.2%)
Software – +9.6% (up from 8.7%)
Services – +8.1% (up from 7.7%)
2012 WW IT Spending growth is looking like +6.7%. The next year model has been too low at this point for the past 2 years, so I'd expect this to climb a bit over the next 12 months.
July 5, 2011 WW IT Spending Update
2011 WW IT Growth Model Estimate is 8.4%
How Good Can iPhones and iPads Growth Be??
Last month, Rim and Oracle gave us pause, but Accenture, Tibco, and Adobe were encouraging.~15% of the model is already in, but the mid-July reporters will set the tone for the rest of 2011 and will provide a good first glimpse of 2012.
On Deck
Here’s who to watch in the next week or two.Apple is key for HW as the iPad and iPhone estimates have a very wide confidence range.
Company
Expected Growth Rate
7/5 Note
Apple Mac Peripherals iPhones SW & Other
+20% +39% Off the board +14%
32% last time 23% last time 125% last time 15% last time Model has iPads at $3.4B.Look for ~$1B more.
EMC
+13%
16% last time, excludingVMWare
IBM Software Service Hardware
+11% +9% +19%
Can’t be this good, but… +6% last time +6% last time.After Accenture, looking for a nice upside surprise for Services +19% last time
Juniper
+18%
21% last time
Microsoft SW Client Server MBDS
+3% +11% +8%
The model looks a little low... 1% last time 15% last time 24% last time
VMWare
+29%
33% last time.The locomotive keeps churning.
2011 Outlook
Once we sort out Apple, Microsoft, and IBM we’ll be in range of our 2011 WW IT Spending growth forecast.Market segment growth rates will also begin to fall into line.But for right now, here’s where we are compared to other forecasters (based on publically available press releases or news reports).There are many differences in definitions, (constant vs. current currency, products covered, regions, etc., etc.) but on the whole there’s a lot of optimism out there.
Date
2011 WW IT Spending
2011 WW HW
2011 WW SW
2011 WW Services
Ralphfinosconsulting*
6-30-2011
+8.9%
+10.2%
+8.7%
+7.7%
Gartner
6-30-2011
+8.6%
+11.7%
+9.5%
+6.6%
Forrester (US)
3-30-2011
+8.0%
+8.6%
IDC
6-12-2011
+5.7%
+8.0%
+5.3%
~+3.8%
*Including June reporting by Accenture, RIM, etc.
June 24, 2011 WW IT Spending Update
First Q22011 Earnings Reports are in
The Model Hangs Tough at +8.4% for 2011
Will the Mo Continue?Yes, the Mo Continues.
Well, the results were mixed. But there are no signs of a Q2 slowdown yet.Accenture was great (even currency aside) and Oracle gives one pause.But SW was bolstered by Red Hat, Tibco, and Adobe revenue “beats”. RIM is having a tough time, but Apple is great and others are coming on. Here’s what happened this week.Red is Hot, Blue is Not!
Company
Quarterly Revenue Predicted
Quarterly Growth Rate Predicted
June 20 2011 Note
What Happened
Accenture
$6.316B
+13%
Was up +17% in Q12011.Expected modest growth in Govt Sector may be suspect.High expectations for Comm&HiTech Sector.
+21% (although they attributed some of that to YoY currency).High growth in all sectors except Govt.
Adobe
$0.995B
+6%
Guidance is very modest vs. last Qs +20%.
+8% - beat their own guidance
Oracle Total Software Service Apps DB Hardware & HW Service
$10.956B $7.736 $1.269B $2.421 $5.547B $1.831B
+15% +20% +15% +23% +21%
Closing out the year.Software to be up 20% vs 19% in Q1.Services up 15% vs 23% last time. More importantly, we’re pegging Oracle Apps to be up 23% and DB to be up 21%.We haven’t hit near the HW number yet (not apples to apples vs. old Sun), but I think we’ll be closer this time.
Oracle Total was $10,775 (+13%).SW overall was light at +17%, with New licenses being the shortfall. Services (including “Cloud”) fell short at +13%.Apps came in at +18%, DB was +17%.HW Products & Services came in spot on at $1.830B.
Progress
$136M
+6%
Did +5% last Q.
June 28.
Paychex
$509M
+6%
Vs. 5% last time.Payroll is flat, but HRS doing very well.
$510
Red Hat
$256M
+22%
+25% last time
+27%
RIM
$5.4B
+28%
Big miss at $4.908, +16% vs. last Q.Expects weakness to continue in Q3.
Tibco
$199M
+15%
Was +19% last Q
+24%
For the record:
It’s too early to read too much into the Q2 data, but we do have some adjustments vs. our take earlier this week.We now have 2011 at:
All IT Spend +8.4
Hardware +8.9% (9.4% last time)
Software +8.7% (8.8% last time)
Services +7.7% (7.2% last time)
Q12011 Operating Income
Profits are still looking strong. For Q12011, operating income was up 21% - better than the +18% in Q4 (vs. an easier compare).
June 20, 2011 WW IT Spending Update
First Q22011 Earnings Reports Coming up
Uh Oh…RIM was a Bummer and Moved the HW Model Downward
The Model is at +8.4% for 2011
Will the Mo Continue?
There are rumblings out there for a slowdown – so the early Q2 reporters will be carefully watched to gauge how 2011 is doing.Q1 2011 was fairly strong – although not as good as the outstanding Q42010.The WW IT Spending model is pointing to continued aggressive growth, so the 7 companies below will give us an indication whether RIM’s poor results were a competitive or a spending issue.We’re betting on the former – although Wall St has got the heebie-jeebies.
Company
Quarterly Revenue Predicted
Quarterly Growth Rate Predicted
June 20 Note
Accenture
$6.316B
+13%
Was up +17% in Q12011.Expected modest growth in Govt Sector may be suspect.High expectations for Comm&HiTech Sector.
Adobe
$0.995B
+6%
Guidance is very modest vs. last Qs +20%.
Oracle Total Software Service Apps DB Hardware & HW Service
$10.956B $7.736 $1.269B $2.421 $5.547B $1.831B
+15% +21% +15% +22% +20%
Closing out the year.Software to be up 20% vs 19% in Q1.Services up 15% vs 23% last time. More importantly, we’re pegging Oracle Apps to be up 22% and DB to be up 20%.We haven’t hit near the HW number yet (not apples to apples vs. old Sun), but I think we’ll be closer this time.
Progress
$136M
+6%
Did +5% last Q.
Paychex
$509M
+6%
Vs. 5% last time.Payroll is flat, but HRS doing very well.
Red Hat
$256M
+22%
+25% last time
RIM
$5.4B
+28%
Big miss at $4.908, +16% vs. last Q.
Tibco
$199M
+15%
Was +19% last Q
For the record: 2011 is looking like: ·All IT Spend +8.4 ·Hardware +9.4% ·Software +8.8% ·Services +7.2%
May 23, 2011 WW IT Spending Update
With Q1 in, 2011 is Looking Like 11.5% Growth
With >95% of the WW Model now in, we have enough data to make the call for 2011.
Apple is the key story for 2011, but SW Applications – Cross Industry and Vertical Software are lining up for a very stong year.Services is having a nice rebound.
68% of vendor business units met or beat their Q111 guidance midpoints or the forecast model’s estimates, which is around the historical average.Dell (especially), Microsoft, and HP disappointed on the revenue side – Apple crushed the estimate and IBM ’s strong performance somewhat counter-balanced the formers’ weak news.But the net of last week’s news was to pull -1% off of the 2011 overall WW IT Spending forecast.
2011 Outlook
2011 is looking like:
·All IT Spend +11.5, down -1% from last week’s estimate ·Hardware +17.1% down almost -3% from last time ·Software +8.8% vs. +9.8% last time ·Services +7.6% (HP and Dell were around their estimates, so this held firm)
2011 Segment Outlook
Growth will vary by product/service sector.
2010 Growth
2011 Growth
Notes
Handhelds
61.5%
100%
Off the charts
PCs
15.6%
6.3%
Dell and HP set expectations lower
Servers
13.6%
6.0%
Steady
Storage
20.8%
6.4%
Steady
Peripherals
8.7%
3.0%
Drifting lower
Networking HW
21.7%
6.0%
Steady
System & Mgt. Software
17.8%
6.2%
Paralleling HW
Database SW
17.4%
13.3%
Looking strong
Office & Content SW
15.1%
8.1%
Generally weaker
Cross Industry SW
8.6%
15.8%
Industrial recovery and ERP looking good
Engineering SW
9.7%
11.2%
Industrial Spending up
Industry-Specific SW
10.4%
12.8%
Spending for Business Processes is up
Services
3.4%
7.6%
Recovering nicely
May 11, 2011 WW IT Spending Update
Microsoft Slows the SW Model Down
Including iPads, the 2011 WW IT Growth Model Estimate is Now 12.5%
With ~46% of the WW IT Spending Model now in we remain on a very hot pace – largely driven by Apple (90% of the Q12011 Model’s upside vs “only” 40% last Quarter).Microsoft disappointed and everyone else came in close to the predicted numbers, so the froth is off - except for the transformational Apple juggernaut.
Still, 72% of vendor business units met or beat their Q111 guidance midpoints or the forecast model’s estimates vs. mid-60%s in early 2010. So the broad-based view of the market overall continues to be bullish. The "beats" overall were by a much narrower margin, so we shouldn't over-read that data. But the indicators are very good.
2011 Outlook
Our 2011 WW IT Spending growth forecast is shaping up now – with HP, Dell, and CSC the major outstanding data points.So far for 2011 we’re looking at:
·All IT Spend +12.5% vs. +10.2% last time (we included the Apple iPad figures)
·Hardware +19.7% (Apple adjusted) vs. 13.5% last time.
·Software + 8.7% vs. +9.8% last time (Microsoft’s miss)
·Services +7.6% vs. +7.1% last time (edging higher by the month)
We decided to include iPads in our calculations this time – which has ratcheted the HW and IT Spend Totals up significantly.Apple is driving much of the growth by itself, but there is also drag for mobility and the related business and management requirements (IT and network performance and management, infrastructure, security, apps, etc.)
It looks like we’re at a point of significant disruption that is going to have us all recalibrating our mental and math models.Web traffic, social networking, video, and e-commerce (finally) are changing the game in fundamental ways.Its time for some new belief systems (and math)!
April 25, 2011 WW IT Spending Update
Continued Good Revenue News from Vendors
2011 WW IT Growth Model Estimate is Now 10.2%
With ~31% of the WW IT Spending Model now in we’re on a very hot pace – largely driven by Apple, but “all other” is doing OK as well, thank you very much!
72% of vendor business units met or beat their Q111 guidance midpoints or the forecast model’s estimates vs. mid-60%s in early 2010.The stunning 77% figure for Q42010 raised the bar for Q111 – but the vendors stayed on a roll.
Stalwart Q1 Reporting
Here’s what happened last week. When you’re hot, you’re hot!
Company
Expected Growth Rate
4/25/11 What Happened?
Apple Mac Peripherals iPhones SW & Other
+25% +23% +47% +15%
Came in at +32%.No cannibalization yet! Came in at +23%.Right on the money! Came in at +125%. Came in at +15% Ipads added another $2B
EMC
+9%
+16% - Excluding VMWare
IBM Software Service Hardware
+5% +4% +11%
Hitting on all cylinders +6%, even after removing PLM +6%.Services coming back! +19%!
Juniper
+19%
Still rolling!+21%.
VMWare
+37%
Disappointing +33% growth.
2011 Outlook
Our 2011 WW IT Spending growth forecast is shaping up.While its still a bit early, the accelerating upward trend fueled by Apple is very strong.So far for 2011 we’re looking at:
·All IT Spend +10.2% vs. +7.8% last time
·Hardware +13.5% (Apple) vs. 7.3% last time.A healthy +9.2% without Handhelds
·Software + 9.8% vs. +7.7% last time
·Services +7.1% vs. +6.9% last time
Total spending is higher by ~+2.5% pts than we figured last time.The model is under- forecasting iPhones and iPads on purpose – so we all keep things in perspective.But…while Apple is driving much of the growth by itself, it appears that mobility and the related business requirements (IT and network performance and management, infrastructure, security, apps, etc.) are also being pulled forward to accommodate this new world.And just wait until all those twittering 20 year olds each with aniPhone, Xbox, iPad, and laptop enter the workforce and expect the same level of access, messaging, and transacting that they experience today!Good luck with that!
Is this the real deal or are we in a 2000 hype cycle?It strikes me that the web boom was oversold at the time – there were few business benefits in 2001-2002 to immediately justify the spend.But ubiquitous and global connectivity with actual dollars passing hands strikes me as the real deal.
March 25, 2011 WW IT Spending Update
Mixed Results Point to a more Modest 2011 Forecast
“Will the Mo Continue”? Based on What We’ve Seen so far, Answer is “No…
We’re Looking for Something closer to +7% for 2011
Well, Q410 was great, but Q111 so far looks like we’re coming back down to earth.Accenture gives us hope of a Services rebound.Oracle was good news for SW, while Adobe wasn’t.RIM put a dent into the HW number.
This decidedly mixed picture cuts the edge off of the Q410 exuberance – and with a complete month of Japan and Gaddafi, the vendors reporting in April are likely to have more sobering results as well. Apple, IBM, EMC, and SAP in mid-April should firm up the IT growth picture more completely.In the net, we’re expecting the Model to be closer to +7% for 2011 by the end of April.
Company
Quarterly Revenue Predicted
Quarterly Growth Rate Predicted
March 22 2010 Note
March 25 Comment
Accenture
$5.878B
+14%
Was up +12% in Q42010 after mid-single digits in two prior Qs.
Up 17% ($6.054B) with double digital guidance for next Q.Services is waking up!
Adobe
$1.025B
+19%
Beat the Q42010 guidance midpoint handily.
$1.025B was right on the money, but calling for only 6% for Q211
Oracle Total
Software
Service
Hardware &
HW Service
$8.041B
$5.817B
$1.143B
$2.052B
+4%
+16%
+23%
0%
Including Sun.Very strong Q42010, especially HW.
Software was great (+19%).Services was right on the money.Well… HW wasn’t so strong.
Progress
$133M
+4%
Did +6% last Q.
Next week
Paychex
$534M
+8%
Payroll is flat, but HRS doing very well.
Short ($520M), +5%.HRS did nicely
Red Hat
$242M
+23%
+22% last time
$246M – they did it again!
RIM
$5.6B
+37%
Did +40% last Q.
$5.556 (only +36%), but Wall Street is going nuts on the lower sequential guidance.
Tibco
$183M
+18%
Have beaten the estimate 7 Qs in a row.
Next week
The new data only accounts for ~10% of the model.For the record, the model is now at:
All spending – 7.8% (vs. 7.9% last week) Hardware – 7.3% (vs. 7.7% last week) Software – Holding firm at 10.4% Services– Up to 6.9% (vs. 6.8% last week)
Happy Spring!See you in April!
March 21, 2011 WW IT Spending Update
First Q12011 Earnings Reports Coming up
We’re Looking at +7.9% for 2011
Will the Mo Continue?
Q4 finished 2010 with a surge with 78% of vendors meeting or beating their guidance midpoint or the forecast.Given that the figure was 66% for the prior 3Qs, this was a departure – perhaps a one time hit, perhaps a pointer to continued strength.The WW IT Spending model is pointing to continued aggressive growth, so the 8 companies below will give us our first indication of whether the revenue surge is sustainable or whether we need to moderate expectations.
Company
Quarterly Revenue Predicted
Quarterly Growth Rate Predicted
March 22 2010 Note
Accenture
$5.878B
+14%
Was up +12% in Q42010 after mid-single digits in two prior Qs.
Adobe
$1.025B
+19%
Beat the Q42010 guidance midpoint handily.
Oracle Total Software Service Hardware & HW Service
$8.041B $5.817B $1.143B $2.052B
+4% +16% +23% 0%
Including Sun.Very strong Q42010, especially HW.
Progress
$133M
+4%
Did +6% last Q.
Paychex
$534M
+8%
Payroll is flat, but HRS doing very well.
Red Hat
$242M
+23%
+22% last time
RIM
$5.6B
+37%
Did +40% last Q.
Tibco
$183M
+18%
Have beaten the estimate 7 Qs in a row.
For the record:
All spending – 7.9%
Hardware – 7.7%
Software – 10.4%
Services – 6.8%
February 23, 2011 WW IT Spending Update
78% Meet or Beat the Q4 Revenue Forecast
Dell & HP Give us Pause, but we’re on Course for +7.8% for WW IT Spending in 2011
With 99% of the model now in, 2010 and 2011 look like +11.1% and +7.8% respectively.
78% of reports (vs. 66% for the 1st 3Qs of 2010) met or beat their revenue forecast – the median being +2.2% across all +135 reports.While the revenue news has been very good, profit margin percentages are lower than Q409 levels for about 1/3 of reports, so there’s some counter-pressure against growth building.
Right now, we’re looking at the following overall:
2009 GR
2010 GR
2011 GR
Hardware
-7.5%
18.3%
7.6%
Software
-4.3%
11.8%
10.1%
Services
-7.4%
3.4%
6.8%
Total
-6.7%
11.0%
7.8%
2011 Product Level Forecast Pretty robust all around.
Column1
2009 Growth
Q4 2010 GR
2010 Growth
2011 Growth
Handhelds
60%
66%
62%
29%
PCs
-9%
8%
16%
6%
Servers
-16%
17%
14%
5%
Storage
-14%
16%
21%
3%
Peripherals
-13%
7%
9%
5%
Comm Gear
-13%
9%
22%
7%
System SW
-4%
1%
13%
8%
DB SW
-3%
8%
8%
8%
Eng App SW
-12%
12%
9%
9%
Authoring & Content Mgt
-10%
27%
15%
15%
Other App SW
-7%
9%
10%
13%
Services
-6%
4%
3%
7%
Software is looking strong across the board.Handhelds are still on fire and will exceed my forecast below (the model has limited data on iPads so its under-forecasting that product line). Storage looks light.
HP and Dell Results
HP and Dell combined represent ~25% of the model.Their results did not move the overall model appreciably, but firmed up the product categories above.
HP was the big news – up ~1% apples to apples.They jumbled up their product reporting which appears to have hidden a -3% yoy in Services.
Here’s what happened.
Cal Q4 2010
Cal Q4 yoy Growth
Feb 14 2011 Note
Feb 24 2011 Note
Dell PC
$8,982M
+10.9%
Strong results
Not so strong, +4.1%
Dell Server,NW, & Stor
$2,497M
+3.9%
Weak results
Not so weak, +10.9%
Dell SW & Periph
$2,620M
+5.8%
OK
Right on - +7.0%
Dell Services
$1,969M
+2.4%
Trudging along – but Accenture & IBM results point to more positive results
More limping than trudging - +1.1%
HP ESS
$4,883M
+11.2%
Strong results
Apples to apples, a very strong quarter (+15%)
HP Services
$8,797M
+1.7%
Trudging along – but Accenture & IBM results point to more positive results
Hard to measure, but Apples to apples, perhaps -3%
HP Software
$877M
0%
Continues to struggle
Apples to apples, may have been +5%, but hard to tell
HP PSG
$10,498M
0%
Weak results
Slightly weaker, -1%
HP IPG
$6,543M
+5.4%
Modest uptick
OK,+7%
February 14, 2011 WW IT Spending Update
79% Meet or Beat the Q4 Revenue Forecast
Cisco Gives us Pause, but We’re on Course for +7.7% for WW IT Spending in 2011
With 72% of the model now in, 2010 and 2011 look like +11% and +7.7% respectively.HP and Dell will be in this week, enabling us to close out 2010 and pointing towards the lay of the land for 2011.
79% of reports are meeting or beating the revenue forecast – the median being +2.3% across all +100 reports.While the revenue news has been very good, profit margin percentages are lower than Q409 levels for about 1/3 of reports.Cisco is the extreme example of showing good revenue growth with lower profit margins.So, we’ll be interested in how hardware leaders HP and Dell do on both counts.
So, we’re looking the following:
2009 GR
2010 GR
2011 GR
Hardware
-7.5%
18.4%
7.9%
Software
-4.3%
11.5%
9.5%
Services
-7.4%
3.5%
6.5%
Total
-6.7%
11.0%
7.7%
We’ll wait for HP and Dell before providing the product level forecast.
HP and Dell Expectations
HP and Dell combined represent about 25% of the model, so their results will make a difference.Here’s what the Model expects from them this period.
Cal Q4 2010
Cal Q4 yoy Growth
Note
Dell PC
$8,982M
+10.9%
Strong results
Dell Server, NW, & Stor
$2,497M
+3.9%
Weak results
Dell SW & Periph
$2,620M
+5.8%
Dell Services
$1,969M
+2.4%
Trudging along
HP ESS
$4,883M
+11.2%
Strong results
HP Services
$8,797M
+1.7%
Trudging along – but Accenture & IBM results point to more positive results
HP Software
$877M
0%
Continues to struggle
HP PSG
$10,498M
0%
Weak results
HP IPG
$6,543M
+5.4%
Modest uptick
January 31, 2011 WW IT Spending Update
Relentless Good Revenue News
2011 WW IT Growth Model Estimate is Now 7.2%
Revised Model has 2010 Closing Out 2010 at +11.0%
With ~55% of the WW IT Spending Model now in, we’re closing out 2010 at 11.0% and looking for 7.2% for 2011.
Q410 has broken all the records. 88% of vendor business units met or beat their Q410 guidance midpoints or the forecast model’s estimates – the highest quarterly figure we’ve had by far since we’ve been doing quarterly forecasting in early 2009.The median over target revenue was +3.8%, which bumps both 2010 and the 2011 forecast significantly.
2010 Closeout
Given the unprecedented tsunami of the Apple IPad, we’ve had to adjust our model.We’ve also taken this opportunity to add ~10 new vendors to the model. The adjusted 2010 model now looks like this:
Hardware: +18.1% Software: +12.0% Services: +3.5% All Spend: +11.0%
Stalwart Q4 Reporting
Here’s what happened as of last week.Its official – there’s Apple and then there’s everyone else!
Company
Q410 Revenue Expectation
Expected Growth Rate
1/10/11 Note
1/31/11 What Happened?
Apple
Mac
Peripherals
iPhones
SW & Other
$4.761B $495M $8.822B $709M
+7% +6% +58% +12%
Rates of growth slowing as 2009 compares get tougher.iPhones couldbe much better than our prediction.
Well, we missed this one! Came in at +22% Came in at +26% Came in at +88% Came in at +25%
CA
$1.124B
+3%
Inching ahead
Right on CA!+11%
EMC
$3.788B
+9%
ExcludingVMWare
+16%
IBM
Software
Service
Hardware
$6.519B $14.936B $5.849B
-1% +2% +13%
Without PLM business.After Accenture, looking for a seriousupside surprise for Services.Hardware continues to be strong.
Hitting on all cylinders +7%, even after removing PLM +2%.Services coming back! +21%
Juniper
$1.053B
+12%
Rate of growth moderating
+26%.I guess we’re not moderating
Microsoft SW
Client
Server
MBDS
$14.130B $4.504B $4.318B $5.308B
-13% +12% +12%
All SW (+3%) Microsoft Windows 7 accounting in Q409.Rest of software humming along.
How about +12%? Trampled over the Windows accounting hurdle (-3%); Server OK (+14%); Office surging to +19%
VMWare
$776M
+28%
The locomotive keeps gaining steam
How about +38%?
2011 Outlook
Our 2011 WW IT Spending growth forecast is shaping up.There’s a bunch of small and medium vendors reporting in the next week or two which likely won’t move the model much.So, there won’t be any substantive news that might move the model until HP, Dell, and Cisco, and CSC report in February.But so far we’re looking at:
All IT Spend +7.2% Hardware + 7.2% Software + 9.8% Services +5.9%
This is higher by ~+2% pts than we figured last time.
January 10, 2011 WW IT Spending Update
All the Early Q4 Reporters Beat the Forecast
2011 WW IT Growth Model Estimate is 5.1% Now
Indications so Far: Will Exceed 6% after January Data is in
We’re on Course for Closing Out 2010 at +8.2%
Last time we reported that with ~15% of the model now in, we were on a course to beat the forecast for 2010 we’ve been holding to for the past 6 months+.
The indicators are solid. All 10 vendors reporting in December met the estimate.Eight (8) of 10 who exceeded it came in at a median of ~+3%.So, our as-reported 2010 WW IT Spending growth below is likely to tick up slightly higher:
Hardware: +13.7%
Software: +8.0%
Services: +1.8%
All Spend: +8.1%
But this is old news.The strong Q410 we’re anticipating ought to drive the 2011 models higher.
On Deck
Here’s who to watch in the coming weeks.
Company
Q410 Revenue Expectation
Expected Growth Rate
1/10 Note
Apple
Mac
Peripherals
iPhones
SW & Other
$4.761B
$495M
$8.822B
$709M
+7%
+6%
+58%
+12%
Rates of growth slowing as 2009 compares get tougher.iPhones could be much better than our prediction.
CA
$1.124B
+3%
Inching ahead
EMC
$3.788B
+9%
ExcludingVMWare
IBM
Software
Service Hardware
$6.519B
$14.936B
$5.849B
-1%
+2%
+13%
Without PLM business.After Accenture, looking for a seriousupside surprise for Services.Hardware continues to be strong.
Juniper
$1.053B
+12%
Rate of growth moderating
Lexmark
$1.101B
+3%
Oh, well…
Microsoft SW
Client
Server
MBDS
$14.130B
$4.504B
$4.318B
$5.308B
-13%
+12%
+12%
All SW (+3%)
Microsoft Windows 7 accounting in Q409.Rest of software humming along.
VMWare
$776M
+28%
The locomotive keeps gaining steam
Q42010 Outlook
The estimates above indicate a healthy ~+8% YoY growth for the model overall.Given the December reports, this is looking light.The performance of the above will go far in pointing us to where 2010 will end up.More importantly, performance in line with how the December data came in, should drive the 2011 Model higher.
2011 Outlook
Our 2011 WW IT Spending growth forecast is shaping up.We’ll have a much better view once the vendors above report.The great results last month from Oracle, Accenture, RIM, et alia (+3% over expectation) all point to a stronger 2011 than the model is currently showing.The 2011 model ought to be north of +6% by the end of January.